The Ai race has felt like a marathon at a sprint pace since late 2022. For the last few years, OpenAI has comfortably worn the yellow jersey. ChatGPT became a household name faster than any consumer application in history, and for a long time, it seemed untouchable.

But as we close out 2025, the landscape looks decidedly different. The question on everyone's lips is no longer if Google can catch up, but when consumer use of Gemini will finally surpass ChatGPT.

The State of Play in late 2025

If you look purely at the headline numbers, OpenAI still holds the lead. With roughly 800 to 900 million weekly active users, ChatGPT remains the default "AI" for the vast majority of the public.

However, dominance is rarely static in the tech world. Recent reports suggest that ChatGPT’s growth has cooled to a steady jog, hovering around 5% to 6% quarter-over-quarter. Meanwhile, Google has found its stride. Gemini has been sprinting, with user growth surging by over 30% in the last quarter alone.

The HUGE Ecosystem Advantage

Why the sudden shift? It comes down to friction.

OpenAI requires you to download an app or visit a website. Google, on the other hand, owns the ecosystem. By replacing the traditional Google Assistant with Gemini on Android devices, they have put their AI model in the pockets of billions of users. It is no longer a destination you have to visit; it is just there.

We have also seen the power of viral features. The recent success of the "Nano Banana" image generation tool and the rollout of Gemini 3 have given Google a cool factor that it arguably lacked in the early days of Bard.

Predicting the crossover

So, when does the flip happen?

If we project the current growth curves forward, the math becomes interesting. With ChatGPT nearing market saturation and Gemini accelerating due to ecosystem integration, the lines on the graph are set to intersect.

We predict that consumer use of Gemini will surpass ChatGPT by late 2026.

This prediction relies on two key factors:

1. Passive vs Active Adoption: Google will win on volume by converting search users and Android owners into Gemini users, often without them explicitly "signing up" for a new service.

2. The Ecosystem Lock-in: As Gemini integrates deeper into Gmail, Docs, and Drive (Google Workspace), it becomes harder for the average consumer to justify paying for a separate ChatGPT Plus subscription when a capable assistant is already built into their daily tools.

What This Means for Marketers

For us in the digital marketing space, this shift is critical. Google has already begun testing ads within Gemini, and the "Search Generative Experience" is reshaping how users find products.

If Gemini becomes the primary interface for information, the battleground for visibility shifts from the traditional SERP (Search Engine Results Page) to the AI response box. Optimising for this new reality is not just a future concern; it is a present necessity.

The King is still on the throne, but the challenger is gaining ground fast. 2026 is going to be a fascinating year.